Friday, February 1, 2008

There's a bit of a hole on that left side...

So, now that we've talked about center, let's talk about another place the Twins are lacking. I'm talking about the massive hole at third that hasn't had a decent solution since Corey Koskie left after 2004. And yes, I'm claiming Koskie was a decent solution, since he put up a .292/.393/.452 line in 2003. What do we have now? Mike Lamb. Hey, I'll take it for now, because we don't have a decent 3B prospect in the farm system. He's cheap, at only $3.3 mill per, and his career .339 OBP has been helped by consecutive years of +.360 OBP. While I'm not impressed by single year increases, I am intrigued two consecutive years of improved progress. (Unless it's two consecutive contract years, Torii. I'm expecting you to drop back down to a VORP of approximately 20 and continue your subpar defense in center.) Of course, Lamb only serves as a temporary stopgap to make the Twins look like they are trying to compete. What's the long term solution?

That's where things get a little more hairy. Right now, the answer is "unknown." A big shame is that the Marlins signed Dallas McPherson to a one year contract worth $425k two days ago. Look, I know he's gotta love getting that opportunity to play in the majors this year, but the Twins could have tried to offer him $600k or so to spend the year at AAA. If he did take it, there's a decent shot that he could have done well (possibly well enough to get pulled up and replace Lamb) and be the long term solution for 3B; the guy would only be 29 in 2010. Would have been a great low-risk with a potential high-reward signing, but the Marlins got it so... Tip of the hat towards Michael Hill.

Free agents aren't looking like a great plan for 2010, either. I haven't done extensive amounts of research on this, but let's be honest: anybody that's going to be a free agent 3B in 2010 is either a) going to be signed by their team by a long term deal before then, b) a more expensive option, c) be an older option and not a "long-term" option beyond 3 years, or d) flat out just not that good. This is why McPherson would have been such a steal; you can't predict finding a guy who tore it up in the minors but has been hampered by injuries.

So what is the best option? Probably moving some of the massive amounts of pitching talent we have for a third baseman. I think it's safe to say we're not getting Evan Longoria, so let's not even bother with that idea. Andy LaRoche? It's possible: The Dodgers rotation currently looks like Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsly, Hiroki Kuroda, and then either Esteban Loiaza or Jason Schmidt. Clayton Kershaw is still 19 and in AA, but he's going to be a great player they'll be expecting him to come up by 2011 at the latest. Chad Billingsly is under contract until 2013 and Penny has a club option for 2009. This could work, depending on how the Dodgers feel about keeping Penny and Lowe after 2008. The Dodgers are still tentative to let LaRoche play, forcing him to try and beat out Nomar in spring training, but does anybody really think LaRoche won't? Even if the Dodgers don't plan on using him this year, they have to think that he's the long term solution. It's worth a shot, but I have trouble seeing this one go through.

But what about Chase Headley? You have to assume Maddux will retire in the next few years, and Randy Wolf probably won't be kept around by the Padres after his contract runs up this year. Assuming they resign Chris Young (We'll treat Peavy as an automatic) they still have a few rotation spots up in the air. Their best pitching prospect, Mat Latos, is still 20 and pitched last year in low-A. Their best starter who spent the entire year at AAA was Jack Cassel, who posted a 3.91 ERA. Tim Stauffer also posted a 4.34 ERA for them in AAA, when all their other pitchers with at least 40 IP in AAA last year posted +5.20 ERAs. A little youngblood pitching could help them out. Plus, they already have Kevin Kouzmanoff at third blocking Headley's way. Would Humber and Blackburn be enough to get it done? I think it could work. You have to be careful when you deal with Kevin Towers, but hey, it's a trade that makes sense. I don't see the problem with getting on the phone and testing those waters out.

Other possibilities? Brandon Wood would be solid, and he's blocked by Chone Figgins right now. The problem with the Angel is they're pretty solid on pitching. They're weak at the AAA level, but unless they decide not to resign John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, and Jon Garland in the next two years, they don't really need much help. Ervin Santana and Jered Weaver are still under arbitration until '11 and '12, respectively. Convincing them to trade Wood for a few pitching prospects would be harder than deals with the Dodgers or Padres.

Unless I'm forgetting someone, that's about it for strong 3B prospets that will be ready in the next year or two. Yes, there are younger guys out there who might be ready by 2010. However, those players are far enough off that I'm less enthusiastic about those options. The further you get from the major league level, the higher the risk of the prospect getting a freak injury or flaming out. Let's hope that my fantasy involving Chase Headley goes through instead of Kevin Towers taking advantage of Billy Smith. Either that, or Billy calls up Ned Colletti and tells him to check out that highlight video of Nomar from 2006 and convinces Ned: "Hey, he's 34, but he has the athleticism of a 26 year old! I'm sure he can play another five or six years!"

(Note: Billy Smith may be a brilliant GM. Rumors are he's a very smart guy, and the makings of an excellent GM. So far, I see glimpses of it, but consider me still bitter about the Santana haul; hence, dunce.)

Also, no, the piranha is NOT an option at third base. anybody that was thinking that, please, just don't read this blog. You and I aren't going to agree on much.
















Go for the ankles! GO FOR THE ANKLES!!!

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