Cuddyer got that extension... why?

As I'm sure you've heard, Michael Cuddyer signed a 3 year, $24 million contract back on January 25th, avoiding arbitration. Details on the contract boil down to a $2.75 mill signing bonus, $5 mill in '08, $6.75 mill in '09, and $8.5 mill in '10 with a team option $10.5 mill in '11 or a $1 mill buyout. Before I start talking about this contract, you should know that I want to be a Michael Cuddyer fan. I started following him in the summer of 2002 as he put up a ridiculous .309/.379/.594 line at Edmonton, which was then Twins the AAA affiliate. I knew less about prospects and development at the time, but Cuddyer became my guy as hitting prospects go. It was the exact same as the way Johan became "my guy" for pitchers, only Cuddyer was unproven and I felt like I had jumped on his bandwagon early. I was excited and thought he would eventually be a great ballplayer. I looked forward to one day rubbing my vast baseball knowledge in other people's faces. Man, was I an ignorant prick.

Now I'm slightly more educated, but still willing to beat people over the head with the baseball stick of knowledge. That's where Cuddyer's new contract comes in. The problem with Cuddyer is that he hasn't met the expectations I put on him back in my youth and has become a below average right fielder. Where do I get off making such an accusation, you ask? How about the fact that Cuddyer had the 22nd highest VORP rate (VORP per game, essentially) of the 37 major league right fielders with a minimum of 200 plate appearances in 2007? This puts him behind Cliff Floyd, Xavier Nady, Randy Winn, and Jose Guillen, among others.

Before I continue, I have to squash the complaint that I know Cuddyer supporters will make: that Cuddyer had an "off year" in 2007 but was much stronger in 2006. That's half right, as Cuddyer was stronger in 2006. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Cuddyer had a career year in 2006 that's likely not going to be repeated.

Cuddyer's 2006 line: .284/.362/.504.
Cuddyer's 2007 line: .276/.356/.433.
Cuddyer's career majors line: .270/.346/.450.
Cuddyer's career minors line: .290/..379/.485.

Cuddyer's minors line may give you hope, but the average baseball player loses 18% of their offensive ability moving from the minors to the majors. It's not necessary to go through the calculations to figure out park factors and all that, I just included the tidbit to show that Cuddyer's careers majors line is indicative of his ability and not thrown off much by his earlier call-ups in 2001-03.

So, why did we sign Cuddyer to an extension? Simply put, to quell the complaining by the Twins' fan base about the Johan trade. That trade was going to happen, regardless of what we got in return. Billy Smith, although possibly screwing up what he could have gotten for Johan, needed to get at least something in return. The team isn't going to contend in 2008, with or without Johan, and the package we received is better than two compensatory draft picks. Why we didn't sign Johan to an extension is a longer discussion that merits a post of its own.

When I first heard about the signing, I was furious. The more I think about it though, the more I like it. Removing Santana and Hunter from the team is going to decrease the team's payroll by a combined $24 million in 2008. We're not competing, so spending that money on expensive free agents is a no-no. Instead, why not buy out the arbitration years and first year of free agency of a below-average yet fan favorite player? The average Twins fan views Cuddyer as part of the Twins "core" and thinks he's essential for the Twins long term success. The contract guarantees he will be around when the new stadium opens in 2010. Also, the fourth year club option means two things: first, that the Twins can claim Cuddyer is signed "past the opening of the new stadium;" second, it means that if Cuddyer hasn't improved (which is likely) or the free agency market hasn't continued its drastic inflation (less likely), they can cut ties in 2011 for the meager cost of $1 mill.

Does this extension improve the Twins long term? No, but it was a brilliant public relations move by Billy Smith. This extension, and the Morneau extension which I'll talk about at a later date, has made nonchalant Twins fans believe that Billy's willing to spend to keep homegrown talent on the roster. The average fan is now more optimistic for the team's long term prospects and less likely to riot over the departure of Santana. Also, because the Twins are currently in non-contention mode with a decreased payroll, the only person that's negatively effected by slightly overpaying Cuddyer is this guy. So, a tip of the hat to Billy Smith for an intelligent decision on this one. Consider this your baseball stick of knowledge beating for the day.