The Morneau Extension

So after talking about the Cuddyer extension yesterday, it only seems fitting to dissect the Morneau extension. Unfortunately, the logic behind this extension is extremely similar to the logic for Cuddyer's extension. The biggest difference is that the Twins actually did sign Morneau to a long term contract, guaranteeing his spot on the team until 2013. Morneau received a $6 mill signing bonus, $7.4 mill in '08, $10.6 mill in '09, and $14 mill per year for '10-'14. This bought out Morneau's remaining years of arbitration (through '10) and his first three years of free agency.

My reaction to this deal? One thumb up, not the double thumbs that Cuddyer got. I'll explain why after a quick statistical rundown. I think we all know Morneau probably won't regain his 2006 "MVP" form again in 2008. You should know why that MVP is in quotation marks. My best guess is that Morneau will have a repeat performance of his 2007 line, roughly his career stats average.

Morneau's 2006 line: .321/.375/.559.
Morneau's 2007 line: .271/.343/.492.
Morneau's career line: .276/.340/.498.

PECOTA, on the other hand, seems to hate Morneau, offering up a line of .271/.339/.465. Since I've used PECOTA before and never explained what it is, I'll give a quick, sloppy explanation for those who have never heard of it: PECOTA was created by Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus around 2002 or 2003. It stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. PECOTA attempts to predict how every player will perform in a given year by comparing each player to historical players with similar attributes. PECOTA looks not only at rate statistics, but also height, weight, age, and other factors. As another side-note, since I did not include it before, Cuddyer's expected 2007 line from PECOTA: .269/.346/.437.

Let's play this safe by looking at a more pessimistic scenario and judging the contract from that point of view. I'm viewing PECOTA as pessimistic because I'm quite optimistic about Morneau's future performance. His numbers last year were hurt by terrible August and September lines (.227/.287/.336 and .215/.324/.333, respectively) during which he claimed the Home Run Derby affected his swing. I don't have a link proving that, because I couldn't find the specific quote, but trust me, he at one point did say this and has decided not to participate in future Home Run Derbies. This is why it's easy to get optimistic about Morneau: going into the All-Star break in 2007, he had a line of .295/.364/.581. Did the Home Run Derby affect his swing and decrease his performance? It's possible. We all know what it did to Bobby Abreu in 2005. It could also be that Morneau simply tired out and didn't have enough left in the tank for the last two months of the season. These are the types of questions the next few years are going to answer. I think it's safe to say that Morneau has shown he is a much improved since his first full year as a starter, when he put up the line .239/.304/.437.

Assuming Morneau performs below his career averages for the duration of this contract, how bad will it hurt us? If you ask me, I'm going to tell you it'll hurt, but it won't cripple. As with the Cuddyer contract, the salaries in '08 and '09 are of little to no importance because the Twins are planning on having a lower payroll and not contending. The interesting part of this contract is the $14 mill per season from 2010 to 2013.

Does anyone out there remember that Adrian Beltre contract from 2004? Beltre had a ridiculous season, going .334/.388/.629. The Mariners, obviously not readers of the Curse of Marty Cordova (because of the contract given after a single year of dominating performance and because this blog started a little over three years after the signing), convinced themselves that Beltre would continue this stellar performance. The Mariners signed Beltre to what was then a massive contract, and Beltre has been a disappointment on the field ever since. How much was the contract for? 5 years, $64 mill. Per year, the contract went $10 mill, $11.5 mill, $11.5 mill, $12 mill, $12 mill. Doesn't seem too ridiculous for today's standards, does it? The Walking Heart Attack signed with the Mariners for 4 years, $48 mill under a month and a half ago. I'd rather have the Walking Heart Attack on my team than Beltre, but the point is that salary inflation over the past four or five years has been ridiculous.

At the rate it's going, we may not be drastically overpaying Morneau in 2012 for his performance, even assuming a worst case scenario level of performance. The beauty of this contract is the fact that it's evenly weighted from 2010 to 2013. With inflating payrolls and contracts, the year that this will hurt us the most is 2010. If Morneau outperforms the PECOTA predictions, as I personally expect he will, the contract looks even better. Do I think we overpaid Morneau? Personally, not really, but that's based on my expectations of his performance. The contract also solidifies first base with a homegrown talent, assists in quieting the complaints about losing Santana, and gives the appearance that the Twins are willing to open the checkbooks for deserving talent. All in all, an understandable and respectable extension.