I told myself I wouldn't come back to this. I told myself I was too busy, there are other Twins blogs out there, and that I couldn't do a significantly better job. That I had better things to do with my time than rant about baseball on a blog that nobody reads. Then, Jim Souhan attempted to Danza-slap me with his writing and unleashed the rage within me.
What writing? Well, this could be regarding at least two articles of Souhan's in any given week, but the one in particular that I am referring to was today's article on how the Twins should have traded Liriano and Lamb for Beltre. Jim and I are now going to have a spirited conversation regarding this topic; unfortunately, I refuse to actually talk to Jim due to his extremely high level of both arrogance and ignorance. It may also have to do with the fact that I am a relative nobody and have no idea how to get a hold of him, but those facts notwithstanding, I'd rather do it this way. To determine what Jim would probably say, I will be using his article as a guide.
Jim: Duuude, you know what would have been just totally AWESOME? If the Twins had like.. Traded for that guy.. The third baseman for Seattle.. Beltran? Beltway? ... The belle of the ball?
Me: Beltre? Adrian Beltre? With what, the Mariners have been asking for at least one of Blackburn, Slowey, Perkins, Baker, or Span. All those players are pre-arbitration and we'd be eating Beltre's salary. The Twins aren't willing to do it because they view the trade as a salary dump for Seattle, and Seattle wants a decent player in return.
Jim: Yeah, but think about THIS! We could have given them Liriano! Then our major league team will remain unchanged, BUT we add Beltre-an! This plan is GENIUS!!!
Me: ...Are you serious?
Jim: Yes, think about it! We can add in Lamb in the deal, too! That way we clear up some salary and give them a replacement third baseman! Oh man, I could have been a GM if I had just known the right people.
Me: I'm sorry, but nobody wants Mike Lamb. Why would they give up Liriano, who can instantly help the Twins by taking Livan's spot? Trading a younger player for an older player means you're trying to win now. This means that you think a) the Twins can't make the playoffs with Liriano replacing Livan and b) you think the Twins can make the playoffs with Livan and Beltre. Really? Beltre is that much of an improvement at third relative to Liriano over Livan? Plus you're swallowing Beltre's contract --
Jim: It's a reasonably affordable contract.
Me: It's $12 million! That's over $11 million more than we would be paying Liriano! Plus, the primary reason anyone assumes Beltre would be on the market is that it's a salary dump move!
Jim: Exactly. It's a hefty salary.
Me: But you JUST SAID it was reasonably affordable!
Jim: Can't it be both?
Me: NO!!!! THAT MAKES NO SENSE AT ALL!!!!
Jim: Psh, as if I need to explain myself to you stat geeks. I know exactly what I'm talking about. You need to have some balls and make an aggressive trade! Sell high! I know you wouldn't understand, you're one of those silly Twins fans that cheered for Lew Ford!
Me: WHAT THE HELL DOES LEW FORD EVEN HAVE TO DO WITH THIS CONVERSATION?!?!?! That people liked his name, his ridiculously quirky personality and the fact that he put up an .827 OPS in 2004 makes anyone who cheered for him stupid??? We can't just like a guy, regardless of how he performs? I bet you don't even realize why his OPS went down, Jim. Tell me. Please. I bet you're not going to say "because almost all of his extra base hits came on inside fastballs that he turned on down the line, so teams started pitching him off-speed pitches outside instead of inside fastballs", even though that's precisely what happened. I'm sorry, but I will cheer for a guy when he succeeds as long as he seems like a nice guy and is goofy enough to iron a shirt while he's wearing it. But none of this is the point. You're arguing we should sacrifice a bright young player for talented, albeit expensive, year and a half of Beltre.
Jim: Yes.
Me: Even though this leaves Livan and his 5.48 ERA in the rotation?
Jim: Well, we can deal with that, too. Think about it! We have an excess of outfielders right? Let's trade Delmon for a pitcher!
Me: Trade Delmon Young. The guy we just made the centerpiece of the Garza trade. The 22 year old hitter who put up an .817 OPS in June and .788 OPS so far in July. And is 22. And years away from arbitration. Have I mentioned he's 22 and probably going to get better? Who would you trade him for, anyway?
Jim: A pitcher. Of course.
Me: Okay. Theoretically speaking, which pitcher?
Jim: I don't know, I'm just throwing it out there.
Me: ...I hate you.
Jim: Making these moves would have makred Bill Smith as an intelligent risk taker who understand the Twins need to sell high. So far, in terms of player acquisition, the new front office's batting average is below Everett's.
At this point in the conversation, I would either get up and walk away or collapse with a brain aneurysm attempting to follow Jim's logic. Nobody expects Liriano to come up and put up a 2.16 ERA like 2006. But it's probable that he can put up something closer to a 3.60 ERA, several runs below what Livan is giving the Twins recently. This also gives us a young, cheap core to build around. Trading for Beltre would be nice if we could just do it as a salary dump, but giving up Liriano is ridiculous. Joe Sheehan is willing to do it as long as he doesn't have to give up Swarzak, who is further away and having a much worse year at AA than Liriano is at AAA, and John Perrotto wouldn't be willing to give up more than Brian Duensing.
I'll give Souhan this, though. It's impossible to argue against an ignorant individual as long as they stick to their guns. Push your point aggressively enough and you can sway the uninformed to believe your opinions, regardless of how ludicrous they may be. As for us Twins fans who actually watch the game, study the numbers, and are capable of intelligent analysis, Souhan's articles are only worth a certain level of unintentional humor. I'm far more impressed that he manages to get paid to write about the Twins than by his opinions.
Friday, August 1, 2008
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
1) Welcome back. It's about time. And much needed.
2) Read the book "Sway: the irresistible pull of irrational behavior" it explains how people like Souhan still have a job... and those ridiculous "liquid diets" still make money.
Post a Comment