Yesterday, MLB.com decided to make a nice little video of Vinny Micucci, Harold Reynolds, and Hal Bodley talking about our very own Minnesota Twins. I'm always open to hear what other people have to say about my team in case I might learn something new. You figure MLB.com hired analysts would be able to teach me something about my team, but apparently I'm going to have to append some comments onto their transcript and hope that they can learn something from me here.
Vinny: Francisco Liriano makes his return to that Twins lineup, even when he was out it was obvious how much he'd be missed in that rotation, but now that he's back, the Twins see exactly why.
Harold: Well, he was fantastic, you know, he had an electric slider, his fastball looked like it was back..
Not exactly, Harold. Yeah, his slider still looked solid. But it also lost a lot of movement and velocity as the game went on, which is part of the reason he didn't have a strikeout in the last 2 1/3 innings he pitched. Also, saying his fastball looks like it was "back" means it's back to where it was, which it obviously wasn't. It was still solid, but it wasn't the 96-98 fastball he used to have. He also had some control issues which have to be cleared up before you can start thinking "ace" again. Even then, the only way Liriano gets back into "ace" form is if he gets Cliff Lee's command (Mephistopheles's fastball), which he is nowhere close to now. That's not to say he can't still be a solid 2-3 starter, but he's not an ace again yet.
Vinny: Hal, that this Twins team is in first place at this point in the season, is that surprising to you?
Hal: I think it really is, but they keep pushing the right buttons, they keep doing the right things.
Top notch analysis here. Hal went on to talk about how our pitching staff is solid and young, which is nice to know, but that doesn't explain what "pushing the right buttons" and "doing the right things" are. Essentially, Hal tried to explain the Twins success and came up with "hell if I know how they're doing it," which in all honesty, is a pretty good answer.
Vinny: They seemingly also do it with some great hitting as well too ... Ultimately the lineup doesn't have some of the names that some of the other teams in the AL do, yet they're still able to produce.
Harold: Well the thing that I like is Gardenhire takes what he has and works with it ... they use the team speed, and then they move the man over, they did the little things they have to do. They pick a certain type of player they want, and then they play a certain style...
Yes, thankfully we have Gardy pulling the strings! Don't get me wrong, I think Gardy's a great character and the players seem to like him, but he gave Gomez over 400 PAs at leadoff this year. It was obvious out of training camp Gomez wasn't ready and should start the year in AAA, and just became even more obvious as the year went on. You do realize that Gomez, while leading off, had 97 strikeouts in 409 PAs? And an OBP of .281? That's atrocious for a leadoff hitter. Not only that, but Gardy refuses to mess with the lineup enough that when Redmond starts in place of Mauer, Redmond will bat third because Gardy "doesn't want to mess with the lineup."
The biggest reason the Twins are in first place is pretty simple: luck. Two forms of luck, actually. First, anybody who watches the Twins games has heard Bert tout the fact that the Twins have the highest team batting average with runners in scoring position. He calls it "clutch", but as analysis has shown, it's just luck.
(If you need a BP account to read this and don't have one, I'll quote a small part of it here that capture's the gist of the article:
" You can see this yourself if you like, and you don't need to understand correlations to do it. Pick any five players at random, and check out their splits for the last few seasons (you can do this fairly easily at any of the major sports portals). You'll find that their statistics from year to year in the various clutch situations (RISP, late-inning pressure, September) can vary widely, with no rhyme or reason to the splits. But over a large enough sample, players will hit in given situations pretty much as they do overall. ")
For some more evidence, the Twins are 7th in the majors in runs scored, but are just 16th in MLV with a barely positive value of 2.3. Although not TECHNICALLY what this value means, it essentially says that the Twins have a league average lineup, not the 7th best lineup in the majors. The reason they've scored as many runs as they have is simply the high BA with RISP, which, as I said earlier, is plainly luck.
Not only have the Twins gotten lucky with how they've scored runs, but they've gotten lucky with which games they've scored runs. Ordering the teams by third order wins and losses, the Twins are third in the division. Third order wins and losses are the expected wins and losses a team will have given the equivalent runs scored and allowed by each team, adjusted for the quality of their opponent's pitching, defense, and offense.
So what is the Twins' secret? Luck. Lots and lots of beautiful, delightful luck. The addition of Liriano in place of Livan obviously improves the Twins chances of making the playoffs this year, but the only way they will is if they continue to get lucky.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Monday, August 4, 2008
Liriano's Return
All Twins fans, rejoice! The Franchise is back! Although most Twins fans undoubtedly watched the game, it's questionable just HOW CLOSELY they watched it. I had to miss the game after the first inning and did not get nearly as close a look as I would have liked and I'm guessing there are a few people out there who are in the same boat as me. To do those people (and myself) a favor, I'm going to rewatch the game on MLB Mosaic and go through a little batter by batter analysis for Liriano's last start. For anybody that reads Baseball Prospectus, this will be similar to Kevin Goldstein's batter by batter analysis of a minor league pitcher. Each pitch will be type-velocity-result: FB for fastball, SL for slider, CH for change-up. A b is a ball, a c a called strike, an s a swinging strike, an f a foul ball, and an x a ball in play.
First Inning
Grady Sizemore: FB91c, FB92b, SL85f, SL86b, SL86s = strikeout.
Liriano's first fastball nailed the outside corner down and away. Second one was going for the same spot but missed outside by about 4 inches. All three sliders looked good -- the second probably should have been a called strike. Grady was just over top of the third one, and although the bite isn't what it used to be (it's more of a slow roll over slider now than a sharp, biting slider), the most important part is that Liriano appears to have good command of it.
Jamey Carroll: FB91b, FB91x = Foul-out to second.
Not as good of a first pitch, here. Redmond set up inside and Liriano missed off the outside corner, missing his spot by about a foot and a half. Redmond set up inside again on the next pitch, and Liriano left it over the middle of the plate just above the belt. More luck than anything that Carroll popped it up; thanks for being a subpar hitter, Jamey.
Ben Francisco: FB92b, FB91c, SL84f, SL86b, SL84s = strikeout.
I'm starting to realize I may be calling Liriano's change-ups sliders, considering I haven't seen one yet. That second slider could have been a change because it had less movement on it than the strikeout pitch, but I seriously hope not. If you're topping out at 92 and your change-up is 86.. Yikes. Otherwise, location was better than with Jamey, but not as good as the Grady PA. The strikeout slider was pretty disgusting, Francisco missed it by about a foot.
Second Inning:
Jhonny Peralta: FB91b, CH82b, FB90b, FB90c, FB90x = 5-3
There's that change-up. The first three pitches were all low, missing their spots. Fourth pitch he got up just barely to the knees. Fifth pitch wasn't anything special, again at the knees and near the middle of the plate. He's not consistently hitting his spots, but at least he's keeping the ball down. Getting away with missing low is a lot easier than getting away with missing high; just ask Baker about 2006.
Kelly Shoppach: FB92c, CH82x = F7.
Quick strike on the inside corner, solid pitch. Got Shoppach to pull a high and away change-up for a flyout. Solid, quick AB.
Ryan Garko: FB91x = F9.
Thank you, Ryan Garko, for having absolutely no patience. Simple get-ahead-early type pitch, fastball hitting the ouside corner around the thighs and Garko puts a lazy fly to deep right that Span barely had to move for. Not much to talk about as far as pitching beyond Liriano hit the location of his last three pitches.
Third inning:
Franklin Gutierrez: FB90c, CH83f, FB92f, SL85b, SL84b, CH84f, FB91x = 4-3
Both change-ups were pulled foul mainly because they were change-ups, both left over the heart of the plate. The second got lined hard foul down the left field line. The first slider was a great take by Gutierrez, was a solid pitch. Ground out came on a well placed low and away fastball that would have been a strike had Gutierrez not swung. Meanwhile, Dick and Bert are talking about winning a Gold Glove at first base. Enlightening.
Andy Gonzalez: FB91b, FB91c, FB92b, FB91b, FB90b = BB
The first and fourth pitches were nowhere close, and the fifth still missed by several inches. Redmond even gave Liriano the universal "calm the hell down" sign after the third ball. Not good, because Andy Gonzalez isn't exactly a threat to be pitching around.
Asdrubal Cabrera: FB90b, FB90b, FB91f, FB89c, SL83s = strikeout
Liriano's first pitch, again, misses by over a foot, causing Redmond to go to the mound. The ump really did Liriano a favor with the called second strike. The slider was slower, but had a lot of movement on it and made Adrubal look absolutely foolish. Started looking like it was coming over the middle of the plate thigh high, ended up around Asdrubal's knees and maybe 6" inside.
Grady Sizemore: FB92b, SL82b, FB93b, FB91b = BB, Gonzalez to 2nd.
That'll happen if you lose control against a good hitter. None of the pitches were particularly close and Grady didn't look interested in any of them.
Jamey Carroll: FB91b, CH83c, CH81b, CH81c, SL82x = E6, Gonzalez to 3rd, Sizemore to 2nd.
That third change-up had a good amount of movement so that it could have been a really slowly thrown slider.. Regardless, Redmond set up inside and it ended up high and away. Could give Liriano the benefit of the doubt and say he misfired that one, but it's a little disconcerting. Last pitch was definitely a slower slider that Carroll knocked right to Harris. Brendan Harris promptly remembered that he was playing shortstop and his name is "Brendan Harris" and failed to get the out.
Ben Francisco: SL84b, SL82c, CH83s, FB93b, SL84f, FB87f, FB93s = strikeout
Francisco didn't like that second slider call, with good reason, it looked inside, too. Liriano got really lucky on the second to last pitch, an 87 mph fastball that stayed about thigh high and over the outside half of the plate. The next pitch he dialed back up to 93 with some movement that seemed to go up and away. Good looking pitch, would have been a ball but started off looking like it'd be over the outer half.
Fourth Inning:
Jhonny Peralta: FB92b, FB89f, SL83s, SL84f, CH83x = Infield single to third.
The first slider was very pretty, and Jhonny went right over top of it. The second had a lot less bite, which is why Jhonny fouled it off instead of swinging over top. Liriano's slider looks almost more like a slurve now, and it's going around the same speed as his change, which is fairly straight. It's an interesting combination. Would have been a ground out but Buscher's throw bounced and Lamb couldn't handle it.
Kelly Shoppach: CH82s, CH82s, SL84s = strikeout
Wow, Kelly Shoppach just looked bad. At the same time, Liriano looked very good. First change-up was right on the outside corner at the knees, second was a little low in the middle, and the slider came low and in with Shoppach swinging over it. Slider had more bite and late movement than some of the other ones, but for once, Liriano put all of his pitches right where he wanted them.
Ryan Garko: FB92b, FB92c, FB92f, CH84f, CH83x = Soft single over short, Peralta to 2nd.
Liriano's not missing his spots by much anymore, if he misses them. The first change was over the heart of the plate but seemed to catch Garko by surprise and was pulled foul, the second was a much better pitch, over the middle and just below the knees, but Garko managed to take an off-balance swing and get enough contact to bloop the ball over Harris's head. No complaints about the pitch itself, though.
Franklin Gutierrez: FB91b, CH82b, FB91b, FB90c, FB91x = GIDP, 6-4-3
More bad hitting than good pitching here. First three pitches all miss their mark, fifth pitch was just a simple get-me-over fastball on the outer half of the plate around the waist. Gutierrez tried to pull it though and hit it right at Harris. Give more credit to Punto on the turn than Liriano's pitching for the DP.
Fifth Inning:
Andy Gonzalez: SL81b, FB90c, FB91b, FB91x = single to left
Before I start talking about this AB, I have to tell you that Dick and Bert are talking about Dick's senior prom. Yes, Twins broadcast! Not terrible location on the fastballs (the slider bounced), all three on or around the outside corner. Gonzalez just got decent contact on one.
Asdrubal Cabrera: CH80s (bunting), FB88x = Sac bunt, 1-4, Gonzalez to 2nd.
All I'm going to say about this is AB is that Cabrera is an atrocious bunter. That first change-up was about 6" outside and Cabrera missed it by several inches and got a strike called on him. Liriano seemed to say "I'll take a free out" with his second pitch, putting a fastball over the plate for Cabrera.
Grady Sizemore: CH81b, FB92b, FB91b, FB91b = BB, Gonzalez to 2nd
Get the ball over the plate. Seriously.
Jamey Carroll: FB90b, FB91x = 5-3, Gonzalez to 3rd, Sizemore to 2nd
Bounces the first pitch in front of the plate. Awesome. Then Jamey Carroll says "Wait, the last five pitches have missed horribly? I'm going to swing at this next strike instead of waiting to see if I can draw an easy walk!" Groundout. Thanks, Jamey.
Ben Francisco: SL82b, CH83x = 5-3
The first pitch misses pretty poorly, Redmond setting up inside and the slider missing outside. The second was in a good spot, low and away, but seriously, thank the Indians hitters for swinging aggressively here. And for trying to pull low and away pitches.
Sixth Inning:
Jhonny Peralta: FB91x = Popout to second
Good location on the inside corner. The Indians lineup continues to swing at the first strike they see and make poor contact.
Kelly Shoppach: FB88c, FB90x = F9
At least Kelly took one strike. Liriano's starting to hit the corners again. The good thing about Liriano's command is he's not missing over the heart of the plate when he misses, just off the plate. When he's on, he's hitting the corners consistently and moving his location around. He's also not given up any really solid contact yet.
Ryan Garko: FB88b, CH82c, FB91f, FB90b, SL82f, SL82f, CH81b, FB91x = 4-3
I'm not sure if that second to last pitch was a slider or a change. At this point, Liriano's slider has lost a lot of bite and has dropped about 4mph from the start of the game.
If you could ever say a pitcher had poor control (throws a lot of balls, walks) but decent command (locates his strikes well), then that's what Liriano was this game. Only came over the heart of the plate a few times (one of those last two sliders, along with maybe 5 other times throughout the game), but would also throw balls that missed the plate by a foot. A solid return, no doubt, but he was helped by an impatient Indians lineup and the fact that hitters never seemed to capitalize on his mistakes. You obviously can't expect Liriano circa 2006, but have to just hope he can be a solid starter. It looked to me like he's got decent stuff, but he really has to work on that control before he's comfortably reliable. A team with more patient hitters (Boston, New York) would have done much better than the Indians in that last game.
First Inning
Grady Sizemore: FB91c, FB92b, SL85f, SL86b, SL86s = strikeout.
Liriano's first fastball nailed the outside corner down and away. Second one was going for the same spot but missed outside by about 4 inches. All three sliders looked good -- the second probably should have been a called strike. Grady was just over top of the third one, and although the bite isn't what it used to be (it's more of a slow roll over slider now than a sharp, biting slider), the most important part is that Liriano appears to have good command of it.
Jamey Carroll: FB91b, FB91x = Foul-out to second.
Not as good of a first pitch, here. Redmond set up inside and Liriano missed off the outside corner, missing his spot by about a foot and a half. Redmond set up inside again on the next pitch, and Liriano left it over the middle of the plate just above the belt. More luck than anything that Carroll popped it up; thanks for being a subpar hitter, Jamey.
Ben Francisco: FB92b, FB91c, SL84f, SL86b, SL84s = strikeout.
I'm starting to realize I may be calling Liriano's change-ups sliders, considering I haven't seen one yet. That second slider could have been a change because it had less movement on it than the strikeout pitch, but I seriously hope not. If you're topping out at 92 and your change-up is 86.. Yikes. Otherwise, location was better than with Jamey, but not as good as the Grady PA. The strikeout slider was pretty disgusting, Francisco missed it by about a foot.
Second Inning:
Jhonny Peralta: FB91b, CH82b, FB90b, FB90c, FB90x = 5-3
There's that change-up. The first three pitches were all low, missing their spots. Fourth pitch he got up just barely to the knees. Fifth pitch wasn't anything special, again at the knees and near the middle of the plate. He's not consistently hitting his spots, but at least he's keeping the ball down. Getting away with missing low is a lot easier than getting away with missing high; just ask Baker about 2006.
Kelly Shoppach: FB92c, CH82x = F7.
Quick strike on the inside corner, solid pitch. Got Shoppach to pull a high and away change-up for a flyout. Solid, quick AB.
Ryan Garko: FB91x = F9.
Thank you, Ryan Garko, for having absolutely no patience. Simple get-ahead-early type pitch, fastball hitting the ouside corner around the thighs and Garko puts a lazy fly to deep right that Span barely had to move for. Not much to talk about as far as pitching beyond Liriano hit the location of his last three pitches.
Third inning:
Franklin Gutierrez: FB90c, CH83f, FB92f, SL85b, SL84b, CH84f, FB91x = 4-3
Both change-ups were pulled foul mainly because they were change-ups, both left over the heart of the plate. The second got lined hard foul down the left field line. The first slider was a great take by Gutierrez, was a solid pitch. Ground out came on a well placed low and away fastball that would have been a strike had Gutierrez not swung. Meanwhile, Dick and Bert are talking about winning a Gold Glove at first base. Enlightening.
Andy Gonzalez: FB91b, FB91c, FB92b, FB91b, FB90b = BB
The first and fourth pitches were nowhere close, and the fifth still missed by several inches. Redmond even gave Liriano the universal "calm the hell down" sign after the third ball. Not good, because Andy Gonzalez isn't exactly a threat to be pitching around.
Asdrubal Cabrera: FB90b, FB90b, FB91f, FB89c, SL83s = strikeout
Liriano's first pitch, again, misses by over a foot, causing Redmond to go to the mound. The ump really did Liriano a favor with the called second strike. The slider was slower, but had a lot of movement on it and made Adrubal look absolutely foolish. Started looking like it was coming over the middle of the plate thigh high, ended up around Asdrubal's knees and maybe 6" inside.
Grady Sizemore: FB92b, SL82b, FB93b, FB91b = BB, Gonzalez to 2nd.
That'll happen if you lose control against a good hitter. None of the pitches were particularly close and Grady didn't look interested in any of them.
Jamey Carroll: FB91b, CH83c, CH81b, CH81c, SL82x = E6, Gonzalez to 3rd, Sizemore to 2nd.
That third change-up had a good amount of movement so that it could have been a really slowly thrown slider.. Regardless, Redmond set up inside and it ended up high and away. Could give Liriano the benefit of the doubt and say he misfired that one, but it's a little disconcerting. Last pitch was definitely a slower slider that Carroll knocked right to Harris. Brendan Harris promptly remembered that he was playing shortstop and his name is "Brendan Harris" and failed to get the out.
Ben Francisco: SL84b, SL82c, CH83s, FB93b, SL84f, FB87f, FB93s = strikeout
Francisco didn't like that second slider call, with good reason, it looked inside, too. Liriano got really lucky on the second to last pitch, an 87 mph fastball that stayed about thigh high and over the outside half of the plate. The next pitch he dialed back up to 93 with some movement that seemed to go up and away. Good looking pitch, would have been a ball but started off looking like it'd be over the outer half.
Fourth Inning:
Jhonny Peralta: FB92b, FB89f, SL83s, SL84f, CH83x = Infield single to third.
The first slider was very pretty, and Jhonny went right over top of it. The second had a lot less bite, which is why Jhonny fouled it off instead of swinging over top. Liriano's slider looks almost more like a slurve now, and it's going around the same speed as his change, which is fairly straight. It's an interesting combination. Would have been a ground out but Buscher's throw bounced and Lamb couldn't handle it.
Kelly Shoppach: CH82s, CH82s, SL84s = strikeout
Wow, Kelly Shoppach just looked bad. At the same time, Liriano looked very good. First change-up was right on the outside corner at the knees, second was a little low in the middle, and the slider came low and in with Shoppach swinging over it. Slider had more bite and late movement than some of the other ones, but for once, Liriano put all of his pitches right where he wanted them.
Ryan Garko: FB92b, FB92c, FB92f, CH84f, CH83x = Soft single over short, Peralta to 2nd.
Liriano's not missing his spots by much anymore, if he misses them. The first change was over the heart of the plate but seemed to catch Garko by surprise and was pulled foul, the second was a much better pitch, over the middle and just below the knees, but Garko managed to take an off-balance swing and get enough contact to bloop the ball over Harris's head. No complaints about the pitch itself, though.
Franklin Gutierrez: FB91b, CH82b, FB91b, FB90c, FB91x = GIDP, 6-4-3
More bad hitting than good pitching here. First three pitches all miss their mark, fifth pitch was just a simple get-me-over fastball on the outer half of the plate around the waist. Gutierrez tried to pull it though and hit it right at Harris. Give more credit to Punto on the turn than Liriano's pitching for the DP.
Fifth Inning:
Andy Gonzalez: SL81b, FB90c, FB91b, FB91x = single to left
Before I start talking about this AB, I have to tell you that Dick and Bert are talking about Dick's senior prom. Yes, Twins broadcast! Not terrible location on the fastballs (the slider bounced), all three on or around the outside corner. Gonzalez just got decent contact on one.
Asdrubal Cabrera: CH80s (bunting), FB88x = Sac bunt, 1-4, Gonzalez to 2nd.
All I'm going to say about this is AB is that Cabrera is an atrocious bunter. That first change-up was about 6" outside and Cabrera missed it by several inches and got a strike called on him. Liriano seemed to say "I'll take a free out" with his second pitch, putting a fastball over the plate for Cabrera.
Grady Sizemore: CH81b, FB92b, FB91b, FB91b = BB, Gonzalez to 2nd
Get the ball over the plate. Seriously.
Jamey Carroll: FB90b, FB91x = 5-3, Gonzalez to 3rd, Sizemore to 2nd
Bounces the first pitch in front of the plate. Awesome. Then Jamey Carroll says "Wait, the last five pitches have missed horribly? I'm going to swing at this next strike instead of waiting to see if I can draw an easy walk!" Groundout. Thanks, Jamey.
Ben Francisco: SL82b, CH83x = 5-3
The first pitch misses pretty poorly, Redmond setting up inside and the slider missing outside. The second was in a good spot, low and away, but seriously, thank the Indians hitters for swinging aggressively here. And for trying to pull low and away pitches.
Sixth Inning:
Jhonny Peralta: FB91x = Popout to second
Good location on the inside corner. The Indians lineup continues to swing at the first strike they see and make poor contact.
Kelly Shoppach: FB88c, FB90x = F9
At least Kelly took one strike. Liriano's starting to hit the corners again. The good thing about Liriano's command is he's not missing over the heart of the plate when he misses, just off the plate. When he's on, he's hitting the corners consistently and moving his location around. He's also not given up any really solid contact yet.
Ryan Garko: FB88b, CH82c, FB91f, FB90b, SL82f, SL82f, CH81b, FB91x = 4-3
I'm not sure if that second to last pitch was a slider or a change. At this point, Liriano's slider has lost a lot of bite and has dropped about 4mph from the start of the game.
If you could ever say a pitcher had poor control (throws a lot of balls, walks) but decent command (locates his strikes well), then that's what Liriano was this game. Only came over the heart of the plate a few times (one of those last two sliders, along with maybe 5 other times throughout the game), but would also throw balls that missed the plate by a foot. A solid return, no doubt, but he was helped by an impatient Indians lineup and the fact that hitters never seemed to capitalize on his mistakes. You obviously can't expect Liriano circa 2006, but have to just hope he can be a solid starter. It looked to me like he's got decent stuff, but he really has to work on that control before he's comfortably reliable. A team with more patient hitters (Boston, New York) would have done much better than the Indians in that last game.
Friday, August 1, 2008
Jim Souhan is an idiot.
I told myself I wouldn't come back to this. I told myself I was too busy, there are other Twins blogs out there, and that I couldn't do a significantly better job. That I had better things to do with my time than rant about baseball on a blog that nobody reads. Then, Jim Souhan attempted to Danza-slap me with his writing and unleashed the rage within me.
What writing? Well, this could be regarding at least two articles of Souhan's in any given week, but the one in particular that I am referring to was today's article on how the Twins should have traded Liriano and Lamb for Beltre. Jim and I are now going to have a spirited conversation regarding this topic; unfortunately, I refuse to actually talk to Jim due to his extremely high level of both arrogance and ignorance. It may also have to do with the fact that I am a relative nobody and have no idea how to get a hold of him, but those facts notwithstanding, I'd rather do it this way. To determine what Jim would probably say, I will be using his article as a guide.
Jim: Duuude, you know what would have been just totally AWESOME? If the Twins had like.. Traded for that guy.. The third baseman for Seattle.. Beltran? Beltway? ... The belle of the ball?
Me: Beltre? Adrian Beltre? With what, the Mariners have been asking for at least one of Blackburn, Slowey, Perkins, Baker, or Span. All those players are pre-arbitration and we'd be eating Beltre's salary. The Twins aren't willing to do it because they view the trade as a salary dump for Seattle, and Seattle wants a decent player in return.
Jim: Yeah, but think about THIS! We could have given them Liriano! Then our major league team will remain unchanged, BUT we add Beltre-an! This plan is GENIUS!!!
Me: ...Are you serious?
Jim: Yes, think about it! We can add in Lamb in the deal, too! That way we clear up some salary and give them a replacement third baseman! Oh man, I could have been a GM if I had just known the right people.
Me: I'm sorry, but nobody wants Mike Lamb. Why would they give up Liriano, who can instantly help the Twins by taking Livan's spot? Trading a younger player for an older player means you're trying to win now. This means that you think a) the Twins can't make the playoffs with Liriano replacing Livan and b) you think the Twins can make the playoffs with Livan and Beltre. Really? Beltre is that much of an improvement at third relative to Liriano over Livan? Plus you're swallowing Beltre's contract --
Jim: It's a reasonably affordable contract.
Me: It's $12 million! That's over $11 million more than we would be paying Liriano! Plus, the primary reason anyone assumes Beltre would be on the market is that it's a salary dump move!
Jim: Exactly. It's a hefty salary.
Me: But you JUST SAID it was reasonably affordable!
Jim: Can't it be both?
Me: NO!!!! THAT MAKES NO SENSE AT ALL!!!!
Jim: Psh, as if I need to explain myself to you stat geeks. I know exactly what I'm talking about. You need to have some balls and make an aggressive trade! Sell high! I know you wouldn't understand, you're one of those silly Twins fans that cheered for Lew Ford!
Me: WHAT THE HELL DOES LEW FORD EVEN HAVE TO DO WITH THIS CONVERSATION?!?!?! That people liked his name, his ridiculously quirky personality and the fact that he put up an .827 OPS in 2004 makes anyone who cheered for him stupid??? We can't just like a guy, regardless of how he performs? I bet you don't even realize why his OPS went down, Jim. Tell me. Please. I bet you're not going to say "because almost all of his extra base hits came on inside fastballs that he turned on down the line, so teams started pitching him off-speed pitches outside instead of inside fastballs", even though that's precisely what happened. I'm sorry, but I will cheer for a guy when he succeeds as long as he seems like a nice guy and is goofy enough to iron a shirt while he's wearing it. But none of this is the point. You're arguing we should sacrifice a bright young player for talented, albeit expensive, year and a half of Beltre.
Jim: Yes.
Me: Even though this leaves Livan and his 5.48 ERA in the rotation?
Jim: Well, we can deal with that, too. Think about it! We have an excess of outfielders right? Let's trade Delmon for a pitcher!
Me: Trade Delmon Young. The guy we just made the centerpiece of the Garza trade. The 22 year old hitter who put up an .817 OPS in June and .788 OPS so far in July. And is 22. And years away from arbitration. Have I mentioned he's 22 and probably going to get better? Who would you trade him for, anyway?
Jim: A pitcher. Of course.
Me: Okay. Theoretically speaking, which pitcher?
Jim: I don't know, I'm just throwing it out there.
Me: ...I hate you.
Jim: Making these moves would have makred Bill Smith as an intelligent risk taker who understand the Twins need to sell high. So far, in terms of player acquisition, the new front office's batting average is below Everett's.
At this point in the conversation, I would either get up and walk away or collapse with a brain aneurysm attempting to follow Jim's logic. Nobody expects Liriano to come up and put up a 2.16 ERA like 2006. But it's probable that he can put up something closer to a 3.60 ERA, several runs below what Livan is giving the Twins recently. This also gives us a young, cheap core to build around. Trading for Beltre would be nice if we could just do it as a salary dump, but giving up Liriano is ridiculous. Joe Sheehan is willing to do it as long as he doesn't have to give up Swarzak, who is further away and having a much worse year at AA than Liriano is at AAA, and John Perrotto wouldn't be willing to give up more than Brian Duensing.
I'll give Souhan this, though. It's impossible to argue against an ignorant individual as long as they stick to their guns. Push your point aggressively enough and you can sway the uninformed to believe your opinions, regardless of how ludicrous they may be. As for us Twins fans who actually watch the game, study the numbers, and are capable of intelligent analysis, Souhan's articles are only worth a certain level of unintentional humor. I'm far more impressed that he manages to get paid to write about the Twins than by his opinions.
What writing? Well, this could be regarding at least two articles of Souhan's in any given week, but the one in particular that I am referring to was today's article on how the Twins should have traded Liriano and Lamb for Beltre. Jim and I are now going to have a spirited conversation regarding this topic; unfortunately, I refuse to actually talk to Jim due to his extremely high level of both arrogance and ignorance. It may also have to do with the fact that I am a relative nobody and have no idea how to get a hold of him, but those facts notwithstanding, I'd rather do it this way. To determine what Jim would probably say, I will be using his article as a guide.
Jim: Duuude, you know what would have been just totally AWESOME? If the Twins had like.. Traded for that guy.. The third baseman for Seattle.. Beltran? Beltway? ... The belle of the ball?
Me: Beltre? Adrian Beltre? With what, the Mariners have been asking for at least one of Blackburn, Slowey, Perkins, Baker, or Span. All those players are pre-arbitration and we'd be eating Beltre's salary. The Twins aren't willing to do it because they view the trade as a salary dump for Seattle, and Seattle wants a decent player in return.
Jim: Yeah, but think about THIS! We could have given them Liriano! Then our major league team will remain unchanged, BUT we add Beltre-an! This plan is GENIUS!!!
Me: ...Are you serious?
Jim: Yes, think about it! We can add in Lamb in the deal, too! That way we clear up some salary and give them a replacement third baseman! Oh man, I could have been a GM if I had just known the right people.
Me: I'm sorry, but nobody wants Mike Lamb. Why would they give up Liriano, who can instantly help the Twins by taking Livan's spot? Trading a younger player for an older player means you're trying to win now. This means that you think a) the Twins can't make the playoffs with Liriano replacing Livan and b) you think the Twins can make the playoffs with Livan and Beltre. Really? Beltre is that much of an improvement at third relative to Liriano over Livan? Plus you're swallowing Beltre's contract --
Jim: It's a reasonably affordable contract.
Me: It's $12 million! That's over $11 million more than we would be paying Liriano! Plus, the primary reason anyone assumes Beltre would be on the market is that it's a salary dump move!
Jim: Exactly. It's a hefty salary.
Me: But you JUST SAID it was reasonably affordable!
Jim: Can't it be both?
Me: NO!!!! THAT MAKES NO SENSE AT ALL!!!!
Jim: Psh, as if I need to explain myself to you stat geeks. I know exactly what I'm talking about. You need to have some balls and make an aggressive trade! Sell high! I know you wouldn't understand, you're one of those silly Twins fans that cheered for Lew Ford!
Me: WHAT THE HELL DOES LEW FORD EVEN HAVE TO DO WITH THIS CONVERSATION?!?!?! That people liked his name, his ridiculously quirky personality and the fact that he put up an .827 OPS in 2004 makes anyone who cheered for him stupid??? We can't just like a guy, regardless of how he performs? I bet you don't even realize why his OPS went down, Jim. Tell me. Please. I bet you're not going to say "because almost all of his extra base hits came on inside fastballs that he turned on down the line, so teams started pitching him off-speed pitches outside instead of inside fastballs", even though that's precisely what happened. I'm sorry, but I will cheer for a guy when he succeeds as long as he seems like a nice guy and is goofy enough to iron a shirt while he's wearing it. But none of this is the point. You're arguing we should sacrifice a bright young player for talented, albeit expensive, year and a half of Beltre.
Jim: Yes.
Me: Even though this leaves Livan and his 5.48 ERA in the rotation?
Jim: Well, we can deal with that, too. Think about it! We have an excess of outfielders right? Let's trade Delmon for a pitcher!
Me: Trade Delmon Young. The guy we just made the centerpiece of the Garza trade. The 22 year old hitter who put up an .817 OPS in June and .788 OPS so far in July. And is 22. And years away from arbitration. Have I mentioned he's 22 and probably going to get better? Who would you trade him for, anyway?
Jim: A pitcher. Of course.
Me: Okay. Theoretically speaking, which pitcher?
Jim: I don't know, I'm just throwing it out there.
Me: ...I hate you.
Jim: Making these moves would have makred Bill Smith as an intelligent risk taker who understand the Twins need to sell high. So far, in terms of player acquisition, the new front office's batting average is below Everett's.
At this point in the conversation, I would either get up and walk away or collapse with a brain aneurysm attempting to follow Jim's logic. Nobody expects Liriano to come up and put up a 2.16 ERA like 2006. But it's probable that he can put up something closer to a 3.60 ERA, several runs below what Livan is giving the Twins recently. This also gives us a young, cheap core to build around. Trading for Beltre would be nice if we could just do it as a salary dump, but giving up Liriano is ridiculous. Joe Sheehan is willing to do it as long as he doesn't have to give up Swarzak, who is further away and having a much worse year at AA than Liriano is at AAA, and John Perrotto wouldn't be willing to give up more than Brian Duensing.
I'll give Souhan this, though. It's impossible to argue against an ignorant individual as long as they stick to their guns. Push your point aggressively enough and you can sway the uninformed to believe your opinions, regardless of how ludicrous they may be. As for us Twins fans who actually watch the game, study the numbers, and are capable of intelligent analysis, Souhan's articles are only worth a certain level of unintentional humor. I'm far more impressed that he manages to get paid to write about the Twins than by his opinions.
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